(I couldn’t agree more. Smith is one of the few GOPer senators to represent a blue state, and he has got to be a prime target. And if you want a good example of how to defeat a conservative with a faux-moderate record, just take a look at how my man Paul Hodes demolished Charlie Bass. – promoted by DavidNYC)
Oregon has, encouragingly, been trending blue for two decades. 20 years ago, the state had a Republican governor, two Republican senators, and a congressional delegation split 2R-3D.
Since then, we’ve seen 20 years of Democratic governors, a Democratic Senator, no Republican has been elected to state office since an election for Labor Commissioner in 1994, and the Democrats just this month took control of both chambers of the statehouse. The only Republican congressman left is in the Eastern half of the state, which isn’t going to elect a Democrat anyway. But why, then, can’t Oregon seem to shake off our last Republican holdout, Senator Gordon Smith?
Gordon Smith was first elected in 1996, and has spent the last ten years portraying himself in the mold of moderate Republicans who can actually get elected statewide here. Problem: There are no more Republicans like that in Oregon. Gordon Smith replaced the last of ’em! (Mark Hatfield) Since then, the Oregon Republican Party has been increasingly dominated by right wing anti-tax, anti-choice zealots who play well to their primary base, but can’t win statewide. But I digress.
Smith wants, even needs, to be seen like a moderate, sensible Republican in order to get elected, and every now and then drops a position so the mainstream press in Oregon can wax poetic about their dying breed of moderate Republican. Holding out on a budget bill because of excessive Medicaid cuts (although he ended up voting for it), adding Gays and Lesbians to the Hate Crimes Statute (although voting for the Federal Marriage Ammendment), Smith is a die hard social conservative with a knack for knowing just how much he needs to feint to the left in order to preserve the moderate image.
My point is this: the electorate in Oregon wants to believe that moderates of both parties can exist. After the Hatfields and McCalls and even Packwoods of a generation ago, there is a deep seated desire for pragmatic, bipartisan leadership. Gordon Smith looks like he fits this model, and unless the people of Oregon can be shown that he is like every other social conservative they’ve spent 20 years rejecting, he will continue to be re-elected. The only way this is going to happen is with a coordinated, effective campaign by the blogosphere and activist class to show who Smith really is and that campaign needs to start today. Oregon is still a blue state, Gordon Smith is not wildly popular and he can be made to be vulnerable, but his vulnerability will only come about if we make it.
Smith’s net approval (approve minus disapprove) this month is 17%, which is pretty good, but not stratospheric. Lincoln Chafee fell from a high of 19% down to 6% this month and lost the election, so Smith is in range. But it’ll take a lot of work and a strong candidate. Go blue!
OregonDem the obvious question is who do we look at as a possible candidate. Former gov. John Kitzbaher(sp.) has been floated although pretty much everyone acknowledges that this is a long shot. Earl Blumenauer and Peter DeFazio have been floated as possible candidates also.
He backed down in 2002- I doubt he will run in 2008.
Same thing with US Reps Bluemaneaur and DeFazio.Wu and Hooley.
Looking at the Statewide Constitutional Officers
Bill Bradbury and Randall Edwards are can either run for Governor or the US Senate.
Any good ideas?
I completely agree that Smith is beatable, and I think Chafee’s a good example of how hard it’s going to be. His loss was a combination of a strong challenge in both the primary and the general election; the guy was under attack for months, and still came within six points of keeping his job. That’s the kind of sustained attack that’s going to be necessary to take down Smith.
the former Gov. is the most popular politician in Oregon and gets lots of support from the rural areas, not just Portland and Eugene.
And more importantly, as I confirmed when I discussed this race with him last night, it’s in his sights, he’s just not ready to start campaigning. Come next summer, the time will be right.
There needs to be a strong effort to make sure people are paying attention to how he votes the next two years. I believe there that a page specifically targeting Smith is already in the works by someone most of us know.
Smith needs to be held accountable for his votes on certain issues. I believe if the right candidate is put forward that it will be a close election.
David
Starting early is key.
I say that because I know it to be true from direct experience.
DavidNYC had great faith in NH-02 flipping to the Dems before anyone else, and by late June I was up and running a local blog which quickly became entirely devoted to Bass v. Hodes. At the time it seemed ridiculously early, since the level of campaigning and media coverage on the campaign was minimal, but now that it’s all over, it strikes me as incredibly late. I’m already thinking daily about the NH-Sen race and beating Sununu. Achieving lasting majorities with progressive candidates really requires a sense of perpetual campaign mode.
Some advice:
1)Get a local blog up fast. Dont’ wait for a candidate to emerge, since it can be entirely devoted to oppo-research on Smith.
2)Search results. The more you blog on Smith oppo-research, the more you will start to dominate search results. If you are prolific and start early enough, then when the tradmed comes a knockin’ they will see your work all over Google, and bingo – you;ve may have just helped frame a candidate. Along those lines, consider your post titles carefully.
3) On fake moderates: Bass has sort of become the template for me on how to deal with those. For me and the other NH-02 bloggers, we simply combed through his record and tied him to his party and Bush whenever possible, long before it was CW to link Candidate X to Bush. We also tried to create a divide between Bass’ public “I’m really a moderate” persona and the his voting record and off-the-cuff statements. My strategy was simple: throw a dart every day, and eventually one or two will stick. It actually worked. The atmosphere will be different in ’08, but you get the picture. Find an issue that appeals to a broad spectrum of Oregonians, and then find something Smith said or voted on that shows he is opposed to it. The longer he has been an incumbent, the better, since a Clinton-era Republican incumbent can turn up some real juicy quotes and votes.
If reading this you think, well, “what difference can a local blog make?”, my answer would be: a lot more than you might expect. A local blog can provide a needed hub between larger, better attended nat’l blogs which can provide candidate money, your local Dem party, the eventual candidate, the local media, and regular Oregonians.
The unpaid, lonely work of setting up a local blog can be daunting over a two-year slog, but it is entirely worth it and satisfying if it helps your guy even a little towards victory.
I’m so glad I came across this blog. I’m a blue stater stuck in a very red county out here in Eastern Oregon or Rural America as I refer to it. People out here love Gordon Smith and think Bush is their God. Seriously, I nearly peed myself when first moving here and seeing a huge banner across a farm’s fence proclaiming WELCOME TO BUSH COUNTRY!
Moved out here from Portland a little over two years ago when my husband got a job with the railroad. Both of us have worked with very devout Mormons, some of whom actually attend church with Gordy. And people were so impressed when he came to speak at one of the elementary schools last year. Every child received a personally signed letter from Smith. Or so the staff thought, because it looked like a computer generated signature to me!
Anyway, if there are any fellow Eastern Oregonians on this blog than give me a shout out! It’s very lonely being a Dem in this part of the state. We did finally get a Starbucks with a drive-thru. Not that any of the Mormons I have met would meet me there for a Latte. I have to be constantly reminded by them No Caffeine, No Alcohol and “we don’t shop on the Sabbath.” OK, I’m bad, didn’t mean to rank on the Mormoms. But living out here much longer might just turn me into an Atheist. Oh…MERRY CHRISTMAS everyone! I get dirty looks if I dare say Happy Holidays instead around here.
Every time Senator Smith feels threatened he will pull out the “suicide” story of his son. All the old ladies go “aww” except for this one as I realize what he is doing.
On the environment he followed Frist right down the line against environmental aide. (Check the League of Conservation Voters.) It would seems to me that he hasn’t had Oregonians in mind in his voting and this should be a paramount issue. Isn’t he supposed to represent us and not the Republican party? He has been a Bushie all the way and I find him repugnant. Love Defazio and wish he would run. I have threatened to work my buns off if the democrat party can come up with a viable candidate to defeat this non representative of Oregon.
I have called Gordon Smith’s office more times than I care to remember on progressive issues including: end illegal wiretaps, no torture, minimum wage, universal health care, and many more asking, as his constituent, for his support on these issues Without exception, Smith’s aides have told me that Smith supports the opposing position. I have politely pointed out that by doing so, Smith is not representing the majority of his constituents and received a testy “well pass your concerns on to the Senator.”
The biggest threat to freedom in the world is not al Qaeda. It’s al Dubya, and Smith is no moderate. He’s a card carrying member of al Dubya.
Thank you, OregonDem!!